HCA Healthcare Inc Dossier
|
SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Care Facilities Beta (adjusted)1.07 Intrinsic Value $385.93median of 5 methods · middle span $367-$760based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $423.39Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $91.7B Enterprise Value $138.7B Shares Outstanding 216.7M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date23 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend16 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary HCA Healthcare's second-quarter operating indicators remained constructive, including positive same-facility admissions, equivalent-admissions and emergency-room growth and higher revenue per equivalent admission. The investment case is nevertheless balanced by a material shift toward uninsured patients following exchange-coverage losses, declining inpatient and outpatient surgery volumes, and reduced visibility around reimbursement mix. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$380.00 Mean target$454.57 High · most bullish analyst$579.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $380.0024% The annual exchange-related pre-tax impact exceeds the revised $1.2 billion adverse bound, surgical declines deepen, and supplemental-payment benefits fail to offset weaker payer and service mix, increasing the likelihood of further guidance pressure. Base CaseCentral scenario $454.5758% Matches the consensus meanPositive admissions and revenue per equivalent admission support continued operating growth, but exchange-driven payer-mix pressure and weak surgical volumes constrain upside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $579.0018% Admissions and emergency-room demand remain positive, surgical volumes stabilize, exchange-related coverage losses moderate, and supplemental Medicaid benefits help HCA perform toward the favorable end of its revised 2026 expectations. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |