HBT Financial Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.68 Intrinsic Value $22.35median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $35.80Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 38% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.3B Enterprise Value $1.3B Shares Outstanding 34.9M diluted Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend11 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary HBT Financial, Inc. represents a stable, community-focused Midwestern banking franchise with a strong core deposit base and conservative underwriting standards. The recent completion of the CNB Bank Shares merger significantly expands its asset base to approximately $6.8 billion, providing immediate scale and long-term cost synergies. However, near-term headwinds including compressed net interest margins from elevated funding costs, integration risks, and a cautious regional lending environment justify a Hold rating at current valuation levels. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$38.00 Mean target$40.40 High · most bullish analyst$44.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Integration challenges lead to elevated non-interest expenses. Intense deposit competition forces higher deposit betas, compressing the net interest margin below 3.90%. A regional economic slowdown in Illinois increases credit provisions and nonperforming commercial real estate loans. Base CaseCentral scenario The integration of CNB Bank Shares proceeds smoothly, delivering projected cost synergies and supporting stable loan yields. Net interest margin remains resilient above 4.10% through disciplined deposit pricing. Asset quality remains excellent with nonperforming assets staying well below historical averages. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |