Hawkins Inc Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustrySpecialty Chemicals Beta (adjusted)0.85 Intrinsic Value $69.73median of 6 methods · middle span $59-$86based on filings through 28 Jun 2026 Market Price $127.19Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 45% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.7B Enterprise Value $2.9B Shares Outstanding 20.9M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Hawkins Inc. (HWKN) has successfully transitioned from a commodity chemical distributor into a high-value specialty ingredients and water treatment solutions provider. The Water Treatment segment now represents 50% of total revenue and 56% of operating income, driving robust cash generation. While recent aggressive acquisitions (six completed in fiscal 2026, including WaterSurplus) have temporarily pressured GAAP EPS due to elevated amortization and interest expenses, pro forma performance remains strong. With a 21-year dividend growth streak and a clear path to deleverage to ~1x adjusted EBITDA by the end of fiscal 2027, Hawkins offers a highly defensive, cash-generative investment profile with significant long-term upside as acquisition synergies materialize. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$142.00 Mean target$174.25 High · most bullish analyst$200.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $142.0020% Integration of recent acquisitions faces delays, resulting in prolonged amortization and interest expense drag. High raw material volatility or a wet/cool summer season dampens Water Treatment volumes, while rising competitive pressures in Industrial Solutions squeeze margins, keeping leverage elevated above 1.3x. Base CaseCentral scenario $174.2550% Matches the consensus meanHawkins achieves steady organic growth in Water Treatment and Food & Health Sciences. Acquisition integration costs normalize, and interest expenses decline as debt is paid down. Diluted EPS recovers to consensus estimates of $4.27 in fiscal 2027, and the leverage ratio reaches the targeted ~1x adjusted EBITDA by year-end. Bull CaseUpside scenario $200.0030% Water Treatment expansion accelerates faster than expected, driven by rapid integration of WaterSurplus and municipal demand. Synergies from fiscal 2026 acquisitions materialize early, driving operating margins back toward historical highs. Leverage quickly drops below 1.0x, allowing for renewed share repurchases under the authorized 2.6 million share program. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |