Hasbro Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Hasbro Inc

HASNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryLeisure

Beta (adjusted)0.66

Intrinsic Value $127.95median of 6 methods · middle span $63-$220based on filings through 28 Jun 2026

Market Price $89.98Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 42% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $12.7B

Enterprise Value $15.3B

Shares Outstanding 143.4M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend19 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Hasbro entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 16%, Wizards and Digital Gaming grew 27%, Consumer Products grew 5%, and management raised full-year revenue, margin and adjusted-EBITDA guidance. The principal investment tension is that exceptional Magic: The Gathering performance is carrying a disproportionate share of growth while Entertainment remains weak and the March 2026 cybersecurity incident adds execution and control risk. The recommendation is Hold rather than a valuation-dependent Buy or Sell.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets14 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$85.00

Mean target$109.29

High · most bullish analyst$120.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$85.0017%

Magic-led growth normalizes sharply, Consumer Products returns to contraction, Entertainment weakness persists, or cybersecurity remediation creates disruption or incremental costs, causing revenue growth, margin or adjusted EBITDA to fall below the revised FY2026 ranges.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$109.2958%

Matches the consensus mean

Hasbro delivers within its FY2026 guidance ranges as Wizards and Digital Gaming remains the primary growth engine, Consumer Products posts modest growth, and Entertainment remains a drag.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$120.0025%

Magic: The Gathering retains strong engagement following its record quarter, Wizards and Digital Gaming continues expanding, Consumer Products sustains positive growth, and Hasbro reaches or exceeds the upper ends of its 5%-7% constant-currency revenue-growth, 25%-26% adjusted-margin and $1.45-$1.50 billion adjusted-EBITDA outlooks.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 consolidated revenue increased 16% year over year, with both Wizards and Digital Gaming and Consumer Products contributing growth.
Wizards and Digital Gaming increased revenue 27%, while Magic: The Gathering exceeded $500 million in quarterly revenue for the first time.
Management raised FY2026 expectations to 5%-7% constant-currency revenue growth, a 25%-26% adjusted operating margin and $1.45-$1.50 billion of adjusted EBITDA.

Key Investment Risks

Growth is increasingly dependent on exceptional Magic: The Gathering performance, increasing franchise and release-slate concentration.
Entertainment revenue declined 20% in the second quarter, indicating that growth remains uneven across the portfolio.
The March 2026 cybersecurity incident affected certain systems and required systems to be taken offline, creating remediation, control, disclosure and potential liability risks.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.