Hartford Insurance Group Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryMulti-line Insurance Beta (adjusted)0.64 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $125.74Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $34.1B Enterprise Value $38.2B Shares Outstanding 275.4M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary The Hartford entered the second half of 2026 with strong underlying underwriting profitability, an 18.7% trailing core earnings ROE and a newly authorized $4.2 billion repurchase program. Business Insurance and Personal Insurance remained profitable, but Business Insurance loss ratios deteriorated year over year, Personal Insurance premiums contracted, and Employee Benefits margins weakened because of disability experience. These offsetting signals support a Hold pending evidence that commercial loss trends stabilize and that capital returns translate into durable per-share growth. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$135.00 Mean target$149.85 High · most bullish analyst$164.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $135.0023% Commercial automobile, general liability and Middle & Large Business loss trends worsen, catastrophe losses rise, Personal Insurance contraction persists, and disability claims keep Employee Benefits margins under pressure. Adverse reserve development or weaker pricing adequacy would reduce underwriting returns and the effectiveness of capital deployment. Base CaseCentral scenario $149.8558% Matches the consensus meanBusiness Insurance premium growth and disciplined underwriting offset moderate commercial loss-ratio pressure; Personal Insurance remains profitable despite lower written premiums; and Employee Benefits operates below its prior-year margin. Repurchases support per-share results, but mixed operating trends limit conviction. Bull CaseUpside scenario $164.0019% Business Insurance sustains an underlying combined ratio near 89, Personal Insurance preserves its mid-80s result, Employee Benefits margins recover, and investment income remains supported by higher invested assets. Execution of the $4.2 billion repurchase authorization would amplify per-share growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |