Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd ADR Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryGold Beta (adjusted)0.88 Intrinsic Value $24.50median of 6 methods · middle span $3-$96based on filings through 30 Jun 2025 Market Price $17.52Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 40% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $11B Enterprise Value $11B Shares Outstanding 621.8M diluted Moat Rating None Last ex-dividend24 Apr 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Harmony enters FY27 with demonstrated operating consistency and a materially larger copper contribution, but the near-term outlook is transitional. FY26 gold production met guidance for an eleventh consecutive year, while CSA operated within guidance after its acquisition. Against those strengths, FY27 gold-production guidance is below FY26 output and the AISC range is above the FY26 outcome. Eva Copper construction and the CSA ramp add execution demands. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$16.68 Mean target$20.73 High · most bullish analyst$23.50 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Gold production falls below 1.3 million ounces, AISC exceeds ZAR1.395 million per kilogram, or CSA produces less than 28,000 tonnes. A material execution setback at Eva Copper would add to the downside by weakening confidence in Harmony's diversification strategy and increasing the burden on the existing gold portfolio. Base CaseCentral scenario Gold production and AISC remain within FY27 guidance, while CSA delivers its planned production increase and Eva Copper advances without a disclosed material disruption. This supports balanced operational performance but leaves investors exposed to lower guided gold output and higher guided unit costs than FY26. Bull CaseUpside scenario Gold production reaches the upper end of the 1.3-1.4 million-ounce FY27 range, AISC remains near the lower end of the guided range, and CSA reaches the upper end of its 28,000-30,000-tonne target while Eva Copper construction continues to advance. This combination would strengthen evidence that copper growth can be delivered without impairing execution in the gold portfolio. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |