Harmonic Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryCommunication Equipment Beta (adjusted)1.21 Intrinsic Value $10.50median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 3 Jul 2026 Market Price $10.72Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.2B Enterprise Value $1B Shares Outstanding 109.1M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Harmonic Inc. has successfully completed its strategic transformation into a pure-play broadband innovator following the $145 million cash divestiture of its Video Business to MediaKind on June 17, 2026. This transaction sharpens management's focus, eliminates segment-level complexity, and provides a significant capital infusion to strengthen the balance sheet. Driven by its market-leading cOS™ virtualized broadband platform, which powers next-generation services for major global operators, Harmonic is uniquely positioned to capture the industry's shift toward software-defined networks. With a record backlog, robust bookings, and a raised full-year broadband revenue outlook, the company represents a compelling growth story with enhanced financial flexibility. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$8.00 Mean target$16.14 High · most bullish analyst$20.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $12.5020% Customer concentration risks materialize as major North American cable operators delay network upgrade cycles or DOCSIS 4.0 deployment timelines. Stranded costs from the Video divestiture linger longer than expected, compressing near-term operating margins and limiting the valuation multiple expansion. Base CaseCentral scenario $16.1450% Matches the consensus meanHarmonic successfully executes its pure-play broadband strategy, meeting its raised FY 2026 broadband revenue guidance of $475 million to $495 million. Stranded costs from the Video divestiture are managed within the projected $10.0 million, and steady customer expansion continues across international markets. Bull CaseUpside scenario $20.0030% Accelerated adoption of DOCSIS 4.0 and FTTH solutions by tier-1 operators drives broadband revenues to the high end of guidance. The pure-play focus leads to rapid operating margin expansion as high-margin software and SaaS recurring revenues scale, while the $145 million cash proceeds are deployed efficiently via share buybacks and R&D innovation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |