Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryInsurance - Reinsurance Beta (adjusted)0.61 Intrinsic Value $22.38median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $33.75Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 34% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.3B Enterprise Value $2.8B Shares Outstanding 100.4M diluted Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend6 Mar 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (NYSE: HG) presents a compelling investment opportunity as a high-performing global specialty insurer and reinsurer. The company stands out due to its disciplined underwriting, modern cloud-based technology infrastructure, and a unique investment relationship with Two Sigma. Hamilton's competitive advantage is further bolstered by its temporary exemption from Bermuda's 15% corporate tax rate until 2030, which provides substantial substance-based tax credits. Trading at a low valuation multiple relative to its strong book value growth and high return on equity, the stock is well-positioned to deliver significant shareholder value. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$32.00 Mean target$38.14 High · most bullish analyst$42.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario An unusually severe season of natural catastrophes or large man-made disasters (such as major bridge collapses or wildfires) severely impacts underwriting profitability, pushing the combined ratio above 100%. Concurrently, high volatility in global financial markets leads to negative returns in the Two Sigma Hamilton Fund, depressing net income and eroding book value. Base CaseCentral scenario Hamilton continues to execute its cycle management strategy, selectively expanding high-margin specialty lines (such as Hamilton Select in the US E&S market and Global Specialty in London) while maintaining a disciplined combined ratio below 93%. The Two Sigma Hamilton Fund continues to deliver stable, low-correlated absolute returns, and the company utilizes its Bermuda tax credits to support earnings and fund ongoing share repurchases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |