Halliburton Co Dossier - Source-backed chat

Halliburton Co

HALNYSE

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services

Beta (adjusted)0.83

Intrinsic Value $33.67median of 6 methods · middle span $31-$57based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $31.88Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $26.6B

Enterprise Value $31.8B

Shares Outstanding 829M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend3 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Halliburton entered the second half of 2026 with improving sequential revenue, North American recovery, international growth, substantial free cash flow, and major long-duration international awards. The offset is an adjusted operating margin below the fourth-quarter 2025 level, continuing Middle East disruption, and high sensitivity to customer capital spending and commodity-market conditions.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets25 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$29.00

Mean target$43.36

High · most bullish analyst$53.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$29.0018%

The downside case assumes weaker customer capital spending, renewed North American pressure, prolonged Middle East disruption, and failure to recover adjusted operating margin. These conditions could outweigh contract wins and constrain free cash flow and shareholder distributions.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$43.3658%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes moderate sequential improvement, continued international diversification, disciplined capital returns, and gradual margin recovery, partly offset by geopolitical disruption and uneven regional activity.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$53.0024%

The upside case rests on sustained North American recovery, broad international demand growth, execution of major Aramco and offshore awards, and conversion of differentiated technology into revenue growth and margin expansion. Halliburton reported sequential growth in both major divisions and cited demand growth across every international region it serves.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 revenue increased sequentially to $5.7 billion, with North America up 7% and international revenue up 5%.
Major awards include approximately 285 planned Aramco wells, a broader multi-billion-dollar unconventional-gas program, and integrated offshore work in Suriname.
Second-quarter free cash flow was $668 million, alongside approximately $200 million of share repurchases and a $0.17-per-share dividend.

Key Investment Risks

Middle East and Asia revenue declined 2% sequentially in the second quarter as geopolitical conflict reduced activity in several countries.
Adjusted operating margin was 12% in the second quarter of 2026, below the 15% reported for the fourth quarter of 2025.
Results remain exposed to oil and gas prices, customer capital spending, geopolitical conflict, sanctions, tariffs, and execution risks in international markets.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.