H2O America Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryUtilities - Regulated Water Beta (adjusted)0.56 Intrinsic Value $70.32median of 6 methods · middle span $59-$72based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $60.20Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 17% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.5B Enterprise Value $4.2B Shares Outstanding 39.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary H2O America (formerly SJW Group) is a stable, pure-play regulated water and wastewater utility operating across California, Connecticut, Maine, and Texas. The company's long-term growth is anchored by a robust $2.7 billion five-year capital plan (2026-2030) aimed at infrastructure replacement, PFAS remediation, and strategic acquisitions like Quadvest. While the company offers defensive characteristics, a 54-year dividend payment streak, and a clear path to a 6-8% long-term EPS CAGR, its valuation is relatively full at nearly 20x trailing earnings. Furthermore, high leverage (Debt-to-Equity of 1.25) and consistently negative free cash flows due to heavy infrastructure investments balance the steady operational outlook, justifying a Hold recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$60.00 Mean target$67.14 High · most bullish analyst$72.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Regulatory delays or unfavorable rate case decisions in California or Connecticut restrict rate base recovery. Rising interest rates increase the cost of capital, pressuring the company's highly leveraged balance sheet. Extended dilution from the Quadvest acquisition and persistent inflation in construction costs lead to earnings misses and downward revisions of long-term guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully executes its $2.7 billion capital plan, achieving a 13% rate base CAGR and meeting its long-term EPS CAGR target of 6-8%. Regulatory rate relief in California, Connecticut, and Texas continues to support revenue growth, offsetting rising operating and depreciation expenses. The Quadvest acquisition closes smoothly in mid-2026, with temporary dilution in 2026-2027 before turning accretive in 2028. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |