H World Group Limited ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

H World Group Limited ADR

HTHTNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryLodging

Beta (adjusted)0.42

Intrinsic Value $56.00median of 6 methods · middle span $34-$150based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $42.04Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 33% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $13.3B

Enterprise Value $12.6B

Shares Outstanding 307.5M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date17 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend4 May 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

H World entered the second half of 2026 with a large operating footprint, a substantial development pipeline and positive H World China pricing and RevPAR trends. The operational evidence supports continued network growth, but blended H World China RevPAR growth moderated from 3.0% in the first quarter to 1.1% in the second quarter, while the emerging APAC footprint remained small.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets17 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$43.77

Mean target$59.49

High · most bullish analyst$65.57

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$43.7720%

H World China blended RevPAR turns negative, gross openings fall below the 2,200-hotel guidance floor, or pipeline conversion weakens. Because the APAC operation was still small in early 2026, international expansion may not offset a material deterioration in the core China operation.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$59.4955%

Matches the consensus mean

H World China maintains modestly positive RevPAR, and hotel openings remain within the stated 2,200-2,300 range. The operating network and pipeline continue expanding, while APAC remains an early-stage contributor.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$65.5725%

H World China sustains positive ADR and RevPAR growth, the company delivers near the upper end of its 2,200-2,300 gross-opening objective, and the 3,089-hotel pipeline converts efficiently. Continued H Rewards engagement and successful development beyond China would reinforce the network effect.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

At June 30, 2026, H World operated 13,539 hotels and reported a pipeline of 3,089 hotels, providing substantial embedded network-growth capacity.
Second-quarter 2026 H World China blended ADR rose 2.6% year over year and blended RevPAR rose 1.1%, demonstrating continued positive pricing and room-revenue momentum.
Management remained on track for 2,200-2,300 gross hotel openings in 2026, while first-quarter room nights booked by H Rewards members increased 10.7% to 60 million.

Key Investment Risks

H World China blended RevPAR growth moderated from 3.0% in the first quarter of 2026 to 1.1% in the second quarter, indicating reduced operating momentum.
The 2,200-2,300 gross-opening objective creates execution risk around site selection, partner quality and pipeline conversion.
The APAC platform remained early-stage at March 31, 2026, with six operating hotels and approximately ten additional hotels in the regional pipeline.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.