Gulfport Energy Corp Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas E&P Beta (adjusted)0.61 Intrinsic Value $484.43median of 6 methods · middle span $133-$3,978based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $153.35Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 216% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+216%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.7B Enterprise Value $3.6B Shares Outstanding 18.7M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Gulfport Energy Corp (GPOR) represents a highly disciplined, returns-oriented independent natural gas producer with premier core assets in the Utica/Marcellus and SCOOP plays. Following its successful post-restructuring turnaround, the company has established a robust operational model characterized by ultra-long lateral drilling, leading cost structures, and a strong balance sheet with leverage maintained below 1.0x. GPOR's aggressive capital return program, highlighted by record share repurchases, demonstrates management's commitment to maximizing per-share value. Despite near-term commodity price volatility, GPOR is well-positioned to generate resilient free cash flow and capture structural demand growth from LNG exports and power generation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$186.00 Mean target$227.25 High · most bullish analyst$263.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case assumes prolonged weakness in regional natural gas prices due to oversupply or mild winter weather. Widening basis differentials compress realized pricing, reducing adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. GPOR is forced to scale back its share repurchase program to preserve liquidity and maintain its leverage target. Operational headwinds, such as drilling delays or service cost inflation, pressure margins and limit production growth. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes natural gas prices stabilize around strip pricing, allowing Gulfport to successfully execute its 2026 development plan. Production is expected to meet the guided range of 1.030 to 1.055 Bcfe per day, supported by strong drilling efficiencies and lateral length optimization. The company will continue to return substantial capital to shareholders through its remaining share repurchase authorization while maintaining leverage below 1.0x. Valuation multiples are expected to expand toward historical mid-cap peers as the market recognizes GPOR's superior cash margins and inventory depth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |