Guidewire Software Inc Dossier
|
SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Application Beta (adjusted)0.94 Intrinsic Value $146.23median of 6 methods · middle span $113-$210based on filings through 30 Apr 2026 Market Price $155.32Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $12.7B Enterprise Value $12.8B Shares Outstanding 85.4M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date3 Dec 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Guidewire entered its FY2026 year-end report with strong operating momentum: Q3 ARR reached $1.147 billion, total revenue increased 27%, subscription and support revenue increased 35%, and management raised its full-year revenue, operating-income, and cash-flow outlook. The specialized P&C insurance platform also serves more than 570 insurers across 43 countries. A valuation-neutral Hold is appropriate pending the September 3 results because the durable cloud-migration opportunity is balanced by large-customer concentration, long and complex sales and implementation cycles, execution dependencies. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$137.00 Mean target$202.43 High · most bullish analyst$258.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $160.0022% Guidewire misses the lower ends of its FY2026 ARR or revenue outlook, indicating weaker large-deal conversion or cloud-migration execution, while customer concentration and long implementation cycles amplify the effect. Base CaseCentral scenario $202.4358% Matches the consensus meanGuidewire reports FY2026 ending ARR and revenue within management's $1.229-$1.237 billion and $1.460-$1.470 billion guidance ranges, respectively, confirming continued cloud adoption but leaving execution and valuation risks balanced. Bull CaseUpside scenario $250.0020% Guidewire reaches or exceeds the upper ends of its FY2026 outlook, including $1.237 billion of ending ARR and $1.470 billion of revenue, while sustaining strong subscription growth and operating leverage. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |