Guardant Health Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Guardant Health Inc

GHNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryDiagnostics & Research

Beta (adjusted)1.40

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $174.75Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $23.5B

Enterprise Value $23.9B

Shares Outstanding 133.5M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Guardant Health has strong operating momentum: second-quarter 2026 revenue increased 44%, oncology test volume increased 63%, and Shield volume rose to approximately 66,000 tests. Shield's inclusion in major screening guidelines and UnitedHealth coverage materially broaden access, while the new Guardant360 Liquid CDx reinforces the oncology franchise. The counterweight is substantial continuing cash consumption, rising operating investment and unresolved intellectual-property litigation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets24 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$105.00

Mean target$194.29

High · most bullish analyst$225.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$105.0020%

Shield volume falls below the 270,000-test guidance floor, capacity and commercial spending remain elevated, and free-cash-flow burn exceeds $205 million. An adverse final outcome in the TwinStrand litigation or weaker-than-expected adoption would further reduce confidence in operating leverage.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$194.2950%

Matches the consensus mean

Revenue and Shield volume remain within management's 2026 guidance ranges, but commercial expansion and laboratory-capacity spending keep free-cash-flow burn near the guided range.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$225.0030%

Revenue reaches the upper end of 2026 guidance as Shield volume meets or exceeds the 285,000-test guidance ceiling, commercial coverage converts into utilization, and the expanded Guardant360 Liquid CDx sustains oncology growth. Better utilization of the higher-throughput Shield workflow could support stronger operating leverage than current results imply.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Broad-based momentum was evident in the second quarter of 2026: total revenue grew 44%, oncology revenue grew 38%, and Shield screening revenue exceeded $52 million.
Shield gained material commercial and clinical validation through UnitedHealth coverage, access for more than 100 million covered lives, and inclusion in both ACS and NCCN screening guidelines.

Key Investment Risks

The growth plan remains cash intensive: management increased expected 2026 free-cash-flow burn to $195-$205 million and raised non-GAAP operating-expense guidance to $1.08-$1.10 billion.
The TwinStrand intellectual-property dispute remains unresolved on appeal, notwithstanding Guardant's position that current Shield and Reveal products are excluded and that Guardant360 design changes can avoid potential ongoing royalties.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.