GSK Plc ADR Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryPharmaceuticals Beta (adjusted)0.59 Intrinsic Value $54.84median of 6 methods · middle span $48-$101based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $47.18Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $94.5B Shares Outstanding 2B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary GSK enters the second half of 2026 with resilient core performance, reaffirmed guidance and substantial late-stage pipeline activity. Q2 turnover grew 5% CER and core EPS grew 9% CER, while Specialty Medicines and Vaccines grew 14% and 8%, respectively. The investment case remains balanced: 62 clinical-stage assets, more than 20 planned Phase III starts and positive bepirovirsen data support durable growth, but the discontinued camlipixant programme, a £1.3 billion related impairment, execution demands from the R&D acceleration programme and the 2028-2030 dolutegravir loss-of-exclusivity period constrain conviction. GSK's issuer-hosted analyst consensus forecasts 2031 turnover of £36.368 billion, below management's greater-than-£40 billion outlook, highlighting both potential upside and a meaningful execution gap. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$47.00 Mean target$58.08 High · most bullish analyst$70.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $47.0023% Turnover or core EPS falls below guidance as General Medicines declines, pipeline setbacks recur after the camlipixant failure, or savings fail to offset higher R&D and restructuring costs. Slower replacement of dolutegravir-based revenue during the 2028-2030 loss-of-exclusivity period would increase the risk that GSK misses both its margin objective and greater-than-£40 billion 2031 sales outlook. Base CaseCentral scenario $58.0855% Matches the consensus meanTurnover and core EPS remain within GSK's reaffirmed 2026 guidance ranges, Specialty Medicines and Vaccines offset continued pressure in General Medicines, and pipeline launches partly mitigate the approaching dolutegravir erosion. The issuer-hosted consensus supports continued earnings progression but forecasts 2031 turnover below management's outlook. Bull CaseUpside scenario $70.0022% GSK performs near or above the upper end of 2026 guidance, converts its enlarged late-stage pipeline into approvals and commercial launches, and successfully accelerates growth through bepirovirsen, oncology assets and newer HIV regimens. Effective execution of the cost programme funds R&D while protecting margins through the dolutegravir loss-of-exclusivity period, allowing sales to approach or exceed management's greater-than-£40 billion 2031 outlook. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |