Grupo Cibest SA ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Grupo Cibest SA ADR

CIBESTBolsa de Valores de Colombia

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.73

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $91.08Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $21.5B

Shares Outstanding 236.2M diluted

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Grupo Cibest entered the second half of 2026 with strong profitability, wider margins and lower quarterly credit costs. First-half ROE reached 21.5%, while second-quarter NIM and cost of risk were 7.9% and 1.6%, respectively. Management consequently raised its 2026 ROE and NIM guidance. These positives are balanced by slower reported loan growth, dependence on a high-rate environment and investment-portfolio income, Colombian fiscal and inflation uncertainty, and execution risk in deploying capital following the Banistmo divestment.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$28.60

Mean target$82.52

High · most bullish analyst$110.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$28.6018%

Colombian inflation, elevated policy rates or fiscal stress weaken credit demand and asset quality. Full-year NIM falls below 7.4%, cost of risk exceeds 1.8%, or ROE falls below 21%, demonstrating that the unusually strong second-quarter margin and investment-income contribution was not durable.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$82.5258%

Matches the consensus mean

The group broadly delivers its revised 2026 ranges: loan growth of 7%-8%, NIM of 7.4%-7.6%, cost of risk of 1.6%-1.8%, and ROE of 21%-22%. Margin normalization and moderate credit costs offset slower balance-sheet growth, producing solid but less exceptional profitability than in 2Q26.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$110.0024%

Profitability remains above revised guidance as low-cost funding and asset repricing sustain NIM at or above 7.6%, credit costs remain no higher than 1.6%, and loan growth reaches the 8% upper end of guidance. Disciplined deployment of Banistmo sale proceeds and continued digital-platform progress create additional upside.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter net income attributable to shareholders reached approximately COP 2.73 trillion, supporting quarterly annualized ROE of 28.73% and first-half ROE of 21.5%.
Management raised 2026 NIM guidance to 7.4%-7.6% and ROE guidance to 21%-22% while maintaining cost-of-risk guidance of 1.6%-1.8%.
Completion of the Banistmo divestment for approximately USD 1.418 billion sharpened the geographic portfolio and increased strategic capital-allocation flexibility.

Key Investment Risks

Reported gross-loan growth was 5.7% year over year in 2Q26, below the 7%-8% full-year guidance range, although growth excluding foreign-exchange effects was stronger.
Colombian fiscal uncertainty, projected inflation and elevated policy rates can weaken credit demand, increase borrower stress and make current margin conditions less durable.
Part of the second-quarter earnings acceleration reflected investment-portfolio gains and favorable carry, creating normalization risk if rates or securities valuations move adversely.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.