Griffon Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryBuilding Products & Equipment Beta (adjusted)1.29 Intrinsic Value $66.08median of 6 methods · middle span $60-$70based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $93.15Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 29% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.3B Enterprise Value $5.4B Shares Outstanding 45.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date18 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Griffon Corporation is undergoing a major strategic transformation to become a pure-play North American building products company. By transitioning its AMES consumer lawn and garden businesses into joint ventures or divesting them, Griffon is unlocking significant value. The core Home and Building Products segment (Clopay) holds a dominant market position in residential and commercial garage doors, exhibiting robust pricing power and high EBITDA margins (25%+). Despite cyclical volume headwinds in the residential housing market, Griffon's aggressive capital allocation strategy—characterized by substantial share buybacks and consistent dividend growth—provides a strong floor for EPS expansion and shareholder returns. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$115.00 Mean target$125.14 High · most bullish analyst$135.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects a prolonged downturn in the housing market, leading to double-digit volume declines that test Clopay's pricing power. Margin normalization occurs as steel and labor costs rise, compressing EBITDA margins toward historical levels. Delays or unfavorable terms in the final AMES Australia divestiture limit capital allocation flexibility. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes Griffon successfully completes its portfolio simplification, closing the AMES joint ventures and exits by the end of fiscal 2026. Clopay maintains its pricing discipline, offsetting soft residential volumes with favorable price/mix. Revenue stabilizes around $1.8 billion with adjusted EBITDA margins holding above 25%. Continued share repurchases reduce the share count, driving steady EPS growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |