Greif Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryPackaging & Containers Beta (adjusted)0.84 Intrinsic Value $48.41median of 5 methods · middle span $14-$59based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $81.56Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 41% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.6B Enterprise Value $5.1B Shares Outstanding 56.8M diluted Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Greif, Inc. is successfully executing its 'Build to Last' strategy, transforming into a higher-margin, less cyclical, and more cash-generative business. The divestiture of its containerboard business for $1.8 billion has dramatically strengthened its balance sheet, reducing leverage to a historic low of 1.1x. However, near-term performance remains constrained by a prolonged industrial contraction and volume softness across core chemical and industrial end markets. While aggressive cost-saving initiatives and proactive pricing actions (such as the July 2026 price hikes) protect margins, top-line growth is expected to remain muted until a broader macroeconomic recovery takes hold. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$74.00 Mean target$87.20 High · most bullish analyst$100.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects a deepening industrial recession or prolonged geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East that further depress global trade and shipping volumes. Customers aggressively resist the July 2026 price increases, leading to market share losses or margin compression as raw material and transportation costs continue to rise. Free cash flow generation weakens, slowing down share repurchases and capital allocation flexibility. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes that industrial demand remains soft but stable throughout fiscal 2026. Greif successfully captures its targeted $80–$90 million in full-year cost savings and successfully implements its July 2026 price increases of $60/ton on uncoated recycled paperboard and 6.5% on converted products. Margins continue to expand slightly, offsetting minor volume declines, and the company meets its low-end FY26 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $610 million. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |