Greene County Bancorp Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.60 Intrinsic Value $30.35median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $33.90Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $577.2M Enterprise Value $539.6M Shares Outstanding 17M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC) continues to deliver record-breaking financial performance, highlighted by its highest quarterly earnings in its 137-year history during Q3 FY2026. The bank benefits from a highly efficient operating model with a sub-50% efficiency ratio and robust asset quality, maintaining nonperforming assets at just 0.10% of total assets. However, its high concentration in commercial real estate (CRE) loans and exposure to regional economic shifts warrant a neutral stance. At current valuation levels, the stock is fairly valued, reflecting its strong regional franchise but limited near-term catalysts for significant multiple expansion. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario A downturn in the regional commercial real estate market leads to rising delinquencies and higher provisions for credit losses. Intense competition for municipal and retail deposits forces the bank to raise deposit rates, compressing NIM back toward 2.10%. Noninterest expenses rise due to persistent inflationary pressures on salaries and benefits. Base CaseCentral scenario The bank maintains steady loan growth in its core Hudson Valley and Capital Region markets while keeping credit losses minimal. Net interest margin stabilizes around 2.60% to 2.80% as deposit costs level off following Federal Reserve rate adjustments. Operating efficiency remains strong, supporting consistent return on average equity (ROAE) above 15%. Bull CaseUpside scenario Greene County Bancorp operates a highly conservative community banking model in upstate New York, funded by a sticky, low-cost municipal deposit base. The bank has a history of outperforming during interest rate hike cycles due to favorable balance sheet repricing, and maintains exceptionally strong credit metrics with an average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 57.8% on non-owner-occupied commercial real estate. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |