Green Brick Partners Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryResidential Construction Beta (adjusted)1.53 Intrinsic Value $50.62median of 5 methods · middle span $51-$56based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $66.44Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 24% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.9B Enterprise Value $3B Shares Outstanding 43M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) continues to demonstrate industry-leading gross margins and operational discipline, particularly through its self-developed land and infill-adjacent strategy in high-growth markets like Dallas-Fort Worth. However, persistent affordability challenges, rising material and labor costs, and a recent material decline in backlog revenue and units suggest near-term headwinds. While the rapid expansion of its financial services segment (Green Brick Mortgage) provides a diversified revenue stream, the broader macroeconomic pressures and margin compression warrant a neutral stance at current valuation levels. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$62.00 Mean target$62.00 High · most bullish analyst$62.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $62.0020% Broader economic downturns in key metropolitan markets, coupled with escalating material costs and persistent high interest rates, lead to a sharper decline in home deliveries and gross margins falling below 25%. Base CaseCentral scenario $62.0050% Matches the consensus meanOperational execution remains steady, but gross margins compress slightly to the 27-28% range due to increased buyer incentives and interest rate buy-downs. Backlog stabilizes, and moderate revenue growth is achieved in 2026 and 2027. Bull CaseUpside scenario $62.0030% Strong demand in core Texas and Florida markets, combined with successful expansion of the high-margin Trophy Signature Homes brand and financial services segment, drives earnings outperformance. Homebuilding gross margins remain resilient above 29% due to superior land positioning. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |