Great Southern Bancorp Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.66 Intrinsic Value $53.48median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $78.11Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 32% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $851.2M Enterprise Value $1.1B Shares Outstanding 10.8M diluted Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend29 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. (GSBC) continues to demonstrate a highly resilient community banking franchise, characterized by disciplined credit underwriting, strong capital ratios, and solid profitability metrics. In Q1 2026, the company delivered a significant earnings beat with an EPS of $1.58, driven by a robust net interest margin of 3.71% and stable loan balances. However, the bank faces headwinds from rising operational costs—specifically a planned technology infrastructure investment of $200,000 to $250,000 monthly over the next 3 to 6 quarters—and intense deposit competition that has elevated wholesale funding costs. Given that the stock is trading near its 52-week high and above consensus analyst price targets, a Hold recommendation is warranted as the market has fully priced in its near-term operational strengths. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$74.00 Mean target$76.00 High · most bullish analyst$78.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Intense deposit competition forces aggressive promotional pricing, compressing NIM below 3.40%. Concurrently, the technology infrastructure spend exceeds budget, driving the efficiency ratio above 65.0%. Credit quality deteriorates slightly in the commercial real estate portfolio, requiring higher provisioning. Base CaseCentral scenario The bank successfully navigates the competitive deposit landscape, maintaining a stable net interest margin above 3.50%. Loan demand remains steady across its Midwestern footprint, offsetting the expiration of historical interest rate swap benefits. The planned technology investments successfully enhance customer experience without causing a severe deterioration in the efficiency ratio. Bull CaseUpside scenario Great Southern Bancorp's bull case is supported by tight asset quality, with non-performing assets remaining exceptionally low (0.14% to 0.17% of total assets) despite its exposure to commercial real estate. Additionally, the bank maintains a stable net interest margin in the mid-3% range (expanding to 3.76% in Q2 2026) due to disciplined funding cost management, and trades at a significant discount to its estimated DCF fair value. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |