Great Elm Capital Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryAsset Management & Custody Banks Beta (adjusted)0.84 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $5.08Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $70.6M Enterprise Value $242.9M Shares Outstanding 14.7M diluted Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Great Elm Capital Corp. (GECC) is a business development company (BDC) focused on middle-market debt and specialty finance investments. The company has demonstrated solid operational execution in Q1 2026, posting a significant Net Investment Income (NII) beat of $0.36 per share, driven by strong portfolio yields and supportive incentive fee waivers from its adviser, GECM. However, top-line revenue volatility and a decline in Net Asset Value (NAV) from $8.07 to $7.74 quarter-over-quarter reflect ongoing mark-to-market pressures. While the balance sheet has been strengthened by redeeming all near-term GECCO notes (leaving no funded debt maturities until 2029), the upcoming expiration of adviser fee waivers on June 30, 2026, warrants a cautious 'Hold' stance to evaluate normalized earnings power. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$6.50 Mean target$6.50 High · most bullish analyst$6.50 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case involves rapid interest rate cuts compressing yields on floating-rate assets, coupled with rising credit defaults in the middle-market portfolio. The expiration of fee waivers without offsetting top-line growth would pressure NII, potentially leading to a dividend cut and further NAV erosion. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes GECC successfully transitions past the June 30, 2026 fee waiver period with stable credit performance. Floating-rate senior secured loans continue to generate attractive yields, and the company maintains its quarterly distribution of $0.25 per share, supported by stable cash flows from core holdings and specialty finance joint ventures. Bull CaseUpside scenario A successful transition under new CEO Jason Reese to strengthen disciplined credit underwriting and capital allocation, combined with the full redemption of the GECCO notes to eliminate near-term debt maturities, will drive Net Asset Value (NAV) recovery and support the high dividend yield. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |