Gran Tierra Energy Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production Beta (adjusted)0.44 Intrinsic Value $7.25median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $10.01Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 28% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $354.2M Enterprise Value $756.9M Shares Outstanding 35.2M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Gran Tierra Energy Inc. presents a compelling value-driven turnaround opportunity. The company is successfully transitioning from an exploration-heavy phase to a disciplined development and cash-generation model. By optimizing its high-netback South American assets (primarily in Colombia and Ecuador) and divesting non-core Canadian assets (such as the Simonette Montney Block), Gran Tierra is significantly improving its liquidity profile. While high leverage and socio-political risks in Colombia remain key concerns, the recent successful bond exchange extending maturities to 2031, combined with robust technical capabilities in enhanced oil recovery (EOR), more than compensate for these risks at current valuation levels. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $5.4520% Operational disruptions, pipeline takeaway constraints in Colombia, or a sharp decline in Brent crude prices below $65/bbl squeeze operating netbacks. Inability to generate projected free cash flow stalls deleveraging efforts, leaving the company vulnerable to its high debt load. Base CaseCentral scenario $12.5050% Gran Tierra delivers on its revised 2026 guidance, maintaining stable production between 40,000 and 45,000 boepd. The company successfully generates $95 million to $115 million in free cash flow, steadily reducing net debt below $450 million. Technical execution in Colombia and initial gravity studies in Azerbaijan progress as planned. Bull CaseUpside scenario $14.0030% Accelerated production optimization from waterflooding in Colombia and appraisal success in Ecuador drive production to the high end of guidance. Stronger-than-expected Brent crude prices (above $85/bbl) combined with rapid debt reduction trigger a significant valuation re-rating as bankruptcy concerns evaporate. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |