Graco Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustrySpecialty Industrial Machinery Beta (adjusted)0.95 Intrinsic Value $82.41median of 6 methods · middle span $75-$90based on filings through 26 Jun 2026 Market Price $77.76Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $12.6B Enterprise Value $12.1B Shares Outstanding 166.2M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend20 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Graco entered the second half of 2026 with record second-quarter sales and operating earnings, double-digit adjusted EPS growth, and maintained guidance for low-single-digit organic growth and mid-single-digit total growth including acquisitions. The balanced view reflects evidence that reported growth remains acquisition dependent, the first quarter included a 6% organic decline, second-quarter profitability benefited partly from tariff refunds, and the pending Valco Melton transaction adds integration and capital-deployment risk. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$84.00 Mean target$91.29 High · most bullish analyst$100.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $84.0020% The first-quarter organic contraction reappears, acquisition contributions fail to produce sustainable underlying growth, and profitability weakens as tariff-refund benefits normalize. Integration or completion challenges associated with the proposed $447 million Valco Melton transaction further pressure execution and capital returns. Base CaseCentral scenario $91.2955% Matches the consensus meanGraco delivers approximately the direction of its maintained 2026 outlook: low-single-digit organic growth and mid-single-digit total growth including acquisitions. Operating execution supports earnings, but acquisition dependence and normalization of tariff-related benefits constrain upside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $100.0025% Organic demand exceeds the maintained low-single-digit outlook, acquired businesses integrate without material margin dilution, and the proposed Valco Melton combination expands Graco's addressable precision-adhesive and quality-assurance markets. Continued operating discipline allows earnings to grow after tariff-related benefits normalize. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |