GrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryOther Specialty Retail Beta (adjusted)0.28 Intrinsic Value No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference. Market Price $2.03Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $59.9M Enterprise Value −$29.9M Shares Outstanding 29.5M diluted Next Earnings Date16 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary GrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc. (NYSE: PEW) operates as a digitally native, multi-brand e-commerce retailer of firearms, ammunition, and related accessories. While the company has demonstrated strong top-line growth (up 11.1% YoY in Q1 2026) and continues to outpace the broader industry's background check trends, it has swung to an operating loss due to elevated public company expenses, stock-based compensation, and personnel costs. The launch of its white-label direct-to-consumer fulfillment service, PEW Logistics, represents a promising high-margin service revenue stream, but the stock remains under significant pressure, trading near its 52-week low. A Hold recommendation is advised until the company demonstrates a clear path to operating profitability and stabilizes its cash burn. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$6.75 Mean target$6.75 High · most bullish analyst$6.75 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $1.5015% The bear case involves a prolonged downturn in consumer firearm demand, regulatory headwinds restricting online sales, and failure to scale PEW Logistics beyond its initial partners. Continued high operating expenses and cash burn erode the company's cash reserves, leading to further valuation contraction. Base CaseCentral scenario $3.5060% The base case assumes steady e-commerce revenue growth of 8-12% annually, with PEW Logistics gradually onboarding 1-2 partners per quarter. Operating losses persist in the near term due to public company overhead but narrow gradually as stock-based compensation expenses stabilize. The stock trades in line with other niche e-commerce and firearm peers. Bull CaseUpside scenario $6.7525% The bull case is driven by rapid scaling of the PEW Logistics platform, onboarding numerous high-profile firearm manufacturers, and driving high-margin service revenue. Additionally, market share gains in the core e-commerce business continue to outpace NICS background check trends, leading to operating leverage and a return to profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |