Grab Holdings Limited Dossier - Source-backed chat

Grab Holdings Limited

GRABNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Application

Beta (adjusted)0.92

Intrinsic Value $3.95median of 5 methods · middle span $4-$7based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $3.12Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 26% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $12.8B

Enterprise Value $9.7B

Shares Outstanding 4.1B diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Grab entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 22% year over year to USD 997 million, On-Demand GMV increased 21% to USD 6.5 billion, Group MTUs reached 54 million, and Adjusted EBITDA increased 54% to USD 168 million. Management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to USD 4.10-4.15 billion and Adjusted EBITDA guidance to USD 720-740 million.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets25 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$4.60

Mean target$5.86

High · most bullish analyst$8.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$4.6018%

Revenue or Adjusted EBITDA falls below the lower end of FY2026 guidance because user or GMV growth slows, integration costs rise, or operating leverage weakens. A reversal from the Q2 Adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.9% would further undermine the profitability thesis.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$5.8658%

Matches the consensus mean

Grab delivers within its raised FY2026 ranges of USD 4.10-4.15 billion in revenue and USD 720-740 million in Adjusted EBITDA. Growth moderates from the Q2 pace, but scale benefits preserve profitable expansion while Superbank consolidation and the Stash acquisition are integrated without material disruption.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$8.0024%

Grab exceeds the upper ends of FY2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance as user engagement, On-Demand GMV growth, and AI-led operating efficiencies remain strong. Continued cash generation and the announced USD 750 million share-repurchase program reinforce per-share value creation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Broad operating momentum: Q2 2026 revenue increased 22% year over year to USD 997 million, while On-Demand GMV increased 21% to USD 6.5 billion.
Improving operating leverage: Q2 Adjusted EBITDA increased 54% to USD 168 million, and its margin expanded to 16.9% from 13.3% a year earlier.
Cash generation and capital returns: trailing-twelve-month Adjusted Free Cash Flow was USD 450 million, and Grab announced a USD 750 million share-repurchase program.

Key Investment Risks

The raised outlook incorporates Superbank consolidation and the Stash acquisition, introducing integration risk and making underlying growth comparisons less straightforward.
The thesis depends on sustaining engagement and transaction growth from a record 54 million Group MTUs and USD 6.5 billion of quarterly On-Demand GMV; material deceleration would weaken operating leverage.
Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Free Cash Flow are non-IFRS measures that exclude specified items, so investors should continue testing whether improvement translates into durable IFRS earnings and cash generation.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.