Goosehead Insurance Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryInsurance Brokers Beta (adjusted)1.25 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $47.15Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.7B Enterprise Value $2B Shares Outstanding 35.7M diluted Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend21 Jan 2025 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) operates a highly scalable, franchise-heavy personal lines insurance distribution model that avoids underwriting risk while capturing high-margin recurring commissions. While the company continues to deliver robust organic growth and is successfully rolling out proprietary AI and digital shopping platforms, the stock has experienced a severe downward re-rating over the past year. This decline reflects broader market skepticism regarding near-term margin expansion, elevated valuation multiples relative to the traditional insurance sector, and persistent insider selling by the founding family's trusts. At current levels, the stock is significantly undervalued relative to historical averages and consensus price targets, making it a compelling watch, but a 'Hold' recommendation is maintained until organic revenue acceleration and margin stabilization become clearer. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$44.00 Mean target$68.92 High · most bullish analyst$100.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $44.00 Organic revenue growth decelerates below double digits due to carrier capacity restrictions in catastrophe-prone states (e.g., Texas, Florida, California) and rising competitive pressures from digital insurtechs. Servicing cost efficiencies fail to materialize, leading to flat or contracting margins, while ongoing insider selling continues to depress the stock price. Base CaseCentral scenario $68.92 Matches the consensus meanGoosehead maintains steady organic revenue growth within its guided 10% to 19% range, supported by stable client retention of 85% to 86% and continued franchise expansion. Servicing costs remain stable as AI initiatives offset wage inflation, allowing the company to gradually recover toward consensus valuation multiples. Bull CaseUpside scenario $100.00 Rapid adoption of Goosehead's proprietary AI virtual assistant and digital shopping platforms drives lower servicing costs and expands operating leverage. This tech-enabled efficiency, combined with market share gains in key states and successful scaling of enterprise partnerships, accelerates premium growth and pushes EBITDA margins well above historical levels, triggering a major valuation re-rating. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |