Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co Dossier - Source-backed chat

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co

GTNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryAuto Parts

Beta (adjusted)1.08

Intrinsic Value $11.28median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $5.03Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 124% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+124%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $1.4B

Enterprise Value $7.2B

Shares Outstanding 287M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Jan 2020

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co is undergoing a massive strategic and operational turnaround driven by its 'Goodyear Forward' program. While the company successfully completed the initial phase of the program in 2025—exceeding its cost-savings target by achieving $1.5 billion in savings and raising $2.2 billion in cash from non-core divestitures (OTR, Dunlop, and Chemical businesses)—near-term operational headwinds remain severe. Profitability deteriorated sharply in Q1 2026, with a net loss of $249 million and segment operating income falling to $95 million due to weak consumer replacement demand, raw material inflation stemming from Middle East conflicts, and high tariff/inflationary pressures. Although the long-term structural changes position Goodyear as a leaner, more focused premium manufacturer with a strong EV tire footprint, the near-term outlook is highly volatile and uncertain, justifying a Hold rating.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets7 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$6.00

Mean target$7.46

High · most bullish analyst$10.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$6.00

The bear case is driven by a prolonged downturn in consumer replacement tire demand, particularly in the Americas, combined with escalating raw material inflation and tariff headwinds exceeding $420 million. If pricing power weakens due to industry-wide sell-in discounting and competitive pressures from low-cost Asia-Pacific imports, Goodyear's thin margins could deteriorate further, delaying its leverage reduction goals and keeping the company in a net loss position.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$7.46

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes that Goodyear's operational performance remains constrained by weak global tire demand and persistent inflationary pressures in 2026. While Goodyear Forward continues to deliver steady quarterly benefits (expected to total $325 million in 2026), these are largely offset by a $185 million profit gap from divested businesses, raw material headwinds, and elevated tariffs. Margins will stabilize slowly, and cash flow generation will remain seasonally volatile, keeping the stock range-bound in the near term.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$10.00

The bull case centers on the successful execution of the Goodyear Forward program, which has structurally lowered the company's break-even point. Falling raw material costs and incremental restructuring savings of $300 million in 2026 could outpace headwinds. Furthermore, Goodyear's pivot to high-margin premium and EV tires (such as those produced at its modernized Lawton, Oklahoma facility) and market share gains in original equipment (OE) could drive rapid margin expansion as replacement demand recovers.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Successful execution of the Goodyear Forward program, delivering $1.5 billion in cumulative savings and $2.2 billion in divestiture proceeds to pay down high-cost debt.
Strong positioning in high-margin premium segments, particularly EV and autonomous vehicle tires, with premium large rim diameter tires (>18") representing a growing share of sales.
Original equipment (OE) market share gains of approximately 2 percentage points in the Americas and EMEA during Q1 2026, which should support future high-margin replacement demand.

Key Investment Risks

Severe near-term demand weakness in consumer replacement and commercial tire markets, particularly in the Americas.
Significant cost headwinds, including an estimated $200 million raw material headwind in H2 2026 and $420 million in full-year inflation, tariffs, and other costs.
Earnings dilution and profit gaps resulting from the divestiture of the Chemical, Dunlop, and Off-the-Road (OTR) businesses.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of H2 2026 volumes to sequentially improve as projected by management.
Raw material cost inflation escalating significantly beyond the estimated $200 million H2 headwind.
Inability to achieve the projected $325 million in Goodyear Forward program savings for the full year 2026.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.