GoodRx Holdings Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

GoodRx Holdings Inc

GDRXNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryHealth Information Services

Beta (adjusted)1.39

Intrinsic Value $3.08median of 6 methods · middle span $1-$6based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $3.27Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $1.1B

Enterprise Value $1.3B

Shares Outstanding 341.1M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

GoodRx is undergoing a critical structural pivot. While its legacy core Prescription Transactions Revenue (PTR) is facing severe headwinds from retail pharmacy store closures, changes in integrated savings programs, and lower unit economics, the company is successfully scaling its higher-margin Pharma Direct and subscription segments. The launch of condition-specific subscription programs (such as GoodRx for Weight Loss supporting GLP-1 therapies) and the new GoodRx Companion subscription are promising drivers of predictable recurring revenue. However, near-term profitability remains compressed as the business mix shifts, warranting a Hold recommendation until legacy transaction volumes stabilize.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$2.65

Mean target$3.95

High · most bullish analyst$5.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$2.6520%

The decline in legacy prescription transactions accelerates beyond expectations, while newer subscription offerings face intense competition from tech-enabled pharmacy disruptors and direct-to-consumer platforms. Regulatory actions or PBM contract renegotiations further compress unit economics, driving Adjusted EBITDA margins below 25%.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$3.9550%

Matches the consensus mean

Legacy prescription transaction revenue continues to decline in the mid-to-high teens due to retail pharmacy footprint rationalization, but is offset by over 50% year-over-year growth in Pharma Direct and steady double-digit growth in subscriptions. Monthly Active Consumers (MACs) stabilize around 5.3 million, and the company achieves its raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $765 million to $785 million.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$5.0030%

Pharma Direct and subscription offerings scale faster than expected, driven by massive consumer demand for GLP-1 weight loss therapies and successful adoption of the GoodRx Companion subscription. Direct contracting with 9 of the top 10 retail pharmacies stabilizes legacy unit economics, leading to rapid margin expansion and a re-rating of the stock.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Robust 82% YoY growth in the Pharma Direct segment, demonstrating strong demand from pharmaceutical manufacturers for direct-to-consumer point-of-sale pricing programs.
Successful expansion of subscription offerings, particularly condition-specific programs like GoodRx for Weight Loss covering all FDA-approved GLP-1 therapies.
Strong retail network integration with direct contracts secured with 9 of the top 10 retail pharmacies nationwide, providing a defensive moat.

Key Investment Risks

Legacy core Prescription Transactions Revenue fell 24% YoY in Q1 2026, reflecting structural headwinds in the retail pharmacy landscape.
Lower unit economics and higher fulfillment costs associated with newer offerings are compressing Adjusted EBITDA margins (down to 30.0% in Q1 2026 from 34.4% in Q1 2025).
High reliance on the complex and heavily scrutinized PBM-pharmacy ecosystem, exposing the company to sudden regulatory or contractual shifts.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Monthly Active Consumers (MACs) dropping below 5.0 million sequentially.
Pharma Direct revenue growth slowing to under 30% year-over-year.
Adjusted EBITDA margin falling below 25% on a trailing twelve-month basis.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.