Goldman Sachs Group Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Goldman Sachs Group Inc

GSNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryInvestment Banking & Brokerage

Beta (adjusted)1.19

Intrinsic Value $1,161.93median of 4 methods · middle span $809-$1,515based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $896.67Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 30% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $261.1B

Enterprise Value $146.2B

Shares Outstanding 302.7M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date13 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Goldman Sachs entered the second half of 2026 with exceptional operating momentum: second-quarter net revenues were $20.34 billion, annualized ROE was 23.5%, annualized ROTE was 25.5%, and assets under supervision reached a record $4.04 trillion. The franchise is benefiting from stronger strategic activity, client flows, financing revenues and expansion of Asset & Wealth Management. The counterweight is that current returns materially exceed management's through-the-cycle mid-teens objective and therefore embed meaningful normalization risk. Pending acquisitions of NEOS Investments and LCN Capital Partners broaden durable fee-revenue opportunities but add execution, closing and integration risk.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets20 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$730.00

Mean target$1,141.65

High · most bullish analyst$1,325.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$730.0020%

Deal activity and trading normalize sharply, asset values or client flows weaken, private-credit losses increase, and acquisition or Apple Card transition execution creates additional costs. ROE falls below the firm's through-the-cycle objective or capital headroom narrows materially.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$1,141.6555%

Matches the consensus mean

Second-quarter results normalize from unusually strong levels, but ROE remains around or above management's mid-teens through-the-cycle objective. Asset & Wealth Management retains positive organic momentum, acquisitions expand the addressable fee pool, and capital remains adequate.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$1,325.0025%

Strategic transactions, underwriting and client trading remain elevated; the financing franchise continues compounding; record assets under supervision produce sustained fee growth; and the Innovator, NEOS and LCN additions strengthen active ETF and alternatives capabilities. Returns remain well above the through-the-cycle objective while capital distributions continue.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 net revenues of $20.34 billion, net earnings of $6.63 billion and annualized ROE of 23.5% demonstrate broad franchise momentum.
Record assets under supervision of $4.04 trillion and a 34th consecutive quarter of long-term fee-based net inflows support a more durable revenue mix.
Management targets approximately 30% Asset & Wealth Management pre-tax margin, high-teens returns and $750 billion of fee-paying alternative assets under supervision by year-end 2030.
The planned $5.00 quarterly dividend and unchanged 11.4% standardized CET1 requirement indicate capital strength, while Innovator, NEOS and LCN expand fee-generating capabilities.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter annualized ROE of 23.5% and ROTE of 25.5% materially exceed through-the-cycle objectives and may normalize as trading and investment-banking conditions change.
Management identifies geopolitical uncertainty, private-credit underwriting quality and AI-related disruption of software borrowers as areas requiring heightened risk discipline.
NEOS and LCN remain subject to closing conditions, and their purchase consideration, integration and performance commitments create execution risk.
The Apple Card transition is expected to take approximately 24 months, leaving Goldman Sachs responsible for operating the program and recording its results during the transition.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.