Goldman Sachs BDC Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Goldman Sachs BDC Inc

GSBDNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryAsset Management

Beta (adjusted)0.71

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $9.17Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $1B

Enterprise Value $2.9B

Shares Outstanding 110.9M diluted

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. (GSBD) is facing notable headwinds characterized by credit quality deterioration in its legacy portfolio and a sequential decline in net asset value (NAV) and net investment income (NII). While the company benefits from the global direct lending platform of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, rising non-accruals (reaching 4.7% at amortized cost in Q1 2026) and elevated leverage (1.37x net debt-to-equity) warrant a cautious stance. The dividend yield remains attractive, but coverage is tightening, making a Hold recommendation appropriate until credit metrics stabilize.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$8.00

Mean target$8.94

High · most bullish analyst$10.25

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The bear case assumes further credit deterioration in middle-market borrowers, pushing non-accruals above 5.0% at amortized cost. Continued unrealized losses would erode NAV below $11.50, forcing a reduction in the quarterly base dividend to preserve capital amid elevated leverage.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes that GSBD successfully manages its legacy credit issues through restructuring and par repayments, stabilizing non-accruals near current levels. Net asset value is expected to stabilize around $12.00 per share, and the quarterly base dividend of $0.32 will be maintained, supported by stable yields on its senior secured portfolio.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong institutional backing and direct origination capabilities from the Goldman Sachs global platform.
High concentration of senior secured debt (98.7% of the portfolio, with 97.1% in first-lien investments) providing structural downside protection.
Shareholder-friendly fee structure that aligns management incentives with net asset performance.

Key Investment Risks

Rising credit stress in legacy portfolio holdings, as evidenced by non-accruals increasing to 4.7% at amortized cost in Q1 2026.
Elevated leverage with a net debt-to-equity ratio of 1.37x, reducing financial flexibility.
Tightening dividend coverage due to declining net investment income per share ($0.22 in Q1 2026 vs. $0.32 base dividend).

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A dividend cut below the current $0.32 quarterly base distribution.
Non-accruals rising above 6.0% of the total portfolio at amortized cost.
Net debt-to-equity leverage exceeding the regulatory limit or covenant thresholds.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.