Gold Fields Ltd ADR Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryGold Beta (adjusted)0.79 Intrinsic Value $31.71median of 6 methods · middle span $16-$51based on filings through 31 Dec 2024 Market Price $35.79Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $31.9B Shares Outstanding 894.9M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend13 Mar 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Gold Fields enters H2 2026 with strong operating momentum, substantial free-cash-flow generation and low leverage. Salares Norte has reached steady-state production, while management expects group output at the upper end of annual guidance. The balanced stance reflects offsetting uncertainties: H1 AISC was already inside the upper half of the annual range; Gruyere and Tarkwa may miss asset guidance; Tarkwa's mining leases remain unresolved; and Windfall still requires environmental approval and a final investment decision, with capital expected near the top of its stated range. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$40.00 Mean target$48.34 High · most bullish analyst$57.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $40.0019% Gruyere and Tarkwa fail to recover their first-half shortfalls, group production falls below guidance and AISC exceeds US$2,000/oz. A delayed or adverse Tarkwa renewal materially impairs the portfolio, while Windfall approval is delayed further or project capital rises above the stated range, reducing the capacity for additional shareholder returns. Base CaseCentral scenario $48.3458% Matches the consensus meanProduction finishes near the upper end of the 2.4-2.6Moz range and costs remain within guidance, supported by Salares Norte despite continuing operational pressure at Gruyere and Tarkwa. Tarkwa renewal discussions and Windfall permitting progress without a value-destructive outcome, but neither catalyst is assumed to be fully de-risked. Bull CaseUpside scenario $57.0023% Salares Norte continues to outperform, recovery plans at Gruyere and Tarkwa gain traction, group production reaches or exceeds the upper end of guidance, and AISC remains within the guided range. Windfall receives environmental approval and advances to a disciplined final investment decision, while strong cash generation supports further shareholder distributions. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |