Golar Lng Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Midstream Beta (adjusted)0.37 Intrinsic Value $45.47median of 6 methods · middle span $21-$83based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $48.30Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.9B Enterprise Value $6.7B Shares Outstanding 115.6M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend24 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Golar LNG is successfully transitioning into a high-margin, infrastructure-focused marine energy company. The commencement of the 20-year charter for FLNG Gimi has driven a step-change in quarterly earnings, while the upcoming redeployment of FLNG Hilli to Argentina and the construction of the Mark II FLNG project provide robust long-term growth visibility. Backed by a $17 billion contract backlog and a strategic review led by Goldman Sachs, the company offers a compelling combination of contracted cash flows, commodity upside, and potential strategic catalysts. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$44.50 Mean target$62.28 High · most bullish analyst$74.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $44.50 Operational delays or cost overruns impact the Mark II construction or the Hilli redeployment to Argentina. A sharp decline in global oil and gas prices reduces the value of Golar's commodity-linked derivative upside, and capital expenditure requirements for growth projects strain the cash runway. Base CaseCentral scenario $62.28 Matches the consensus meanFLNG Gimi and Hilli operate smoothly, and the Mark II FLNG project remains on time and on budget for year-end 2027 delivery. The company maintains its $0.25 quarterly dividend, and the strategic review optimizes the capital structure to support the transition of Hilli to Argentina. Bull CaseUpside scenario $65.00 The strategic review results in a premium buyout or a highly accretive joint venture. FLNG Gimi continues to overproduce relative to contractual capacity, and the fourth FLNG unit is ordered ahead of schedule with highly favorable tolling terms, driving run-rate EBITDA well above the $800 million target. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |