Gloo Holdings Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Gloo Holdings Inc

GLOONASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryApplication Software

Beta (adjusted)1.00

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $4.27Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $390.8M

Enterprise Value $389M

Shares Outstanding 95.9M diluted

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Gloo Holdings, Inc. is establishing itself as the category-defining vertical technology platform for the highly fragmented and historically underserved faith and flourishing ecosystem. By leveraging applied AI (Gloo AI Studio) and expanding its digital infrastructure (Gloo 360 and Gloo Workspace), the company is driving massive top-line growth (Q1 2026 revenue up 238% YoY to $41.5 million). While the company remains unprofitable, its sequential Adjusted EBITDA improvements and clear path to profitability by Q4 2026 present a compelling growth opportunity for risk-tolerant investors.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$8.00

Mean target$12.33

High · most bullish analyst$17.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$10.0015%

Integration challenges with acquired Capital Partner businesses and high revenue costs pressure margins, delaying the path to profitability past Q4 2026. Unresolved material weaknesses in financial controls lead to reporting delays or restatements, damaging investor confidence. High management concentration under CEO Scott Beck limits minority shareholder influence.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$13.5060%

Gloo continues its steady execution, meeting its raised FY2026 revenue guidance of $195 million. The company approaches Adjusted EBITDA breakeven in Q3 2026 and achieves sustainable Adjusted EBITDA profitability in Q4 2026. Large strategic deals (ACV > $1 million) continue to validate product-market fit across universities, rescue missions, and denominations.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$17.0025%

Rapid adoption of Gloo AI and Gloo 360 leads to accelerated enterprise-level deals (such as the Assemblies of God deployment). The company achieves Adjusted EBITDA profitability ahead of schedule in Q3 2026, driven by compounding value from recent acquisitions (Masterworks, Midwestern) and high-margin platform solutions. Gross margins expand past 70% as operating leverage takes hold.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Dominant market position in a massive, technologically underserved vertical (faith and flourishing ecosystem).
Hyper-growth profile with Q1 2026 revenue expanding 238% YoY to $41.5 million, beating consensus.
Strong leadership team with former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger serving as Executive Chairman and Head of Technology.
Clear, near-term trajectory to Adjusted EBITDA profitability by Q4 2026 supported by sequential improvements.

Key Investment Risks

History of significant net losses ($17.1 million in Q1 2026) and ongoing going concern uncertainties.
Unresolved material weaknesses in internal controls over financial reporting.
High voting power concentration with founder Scott Beck, limiting minority shareholder influence.
Execution and integration risks associated with rapid acquisitions and scaling of applied AI tools.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to achieve Adjusted EBITDA breakeven or profitability by Q4 2026.
A material restatement of financial results due to unresolved internal control weaknesses.
Significant deceleration in platform solutions revenue growth or loss of major enterprise customers.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.