Globalstar Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Globalstar Inc

GSATNASDAQ

SectorCommunication Services

IndustryTelecom Services

Beta (adjusted)1.36

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $82.88Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $10.7B

Enterprise Value $10.7B

Shares Outstanding 129M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Globalstar is principally a merger-arbitrage security following its definitive agreement to be acquired by Amazon. Stockholders may elect $90.00 cash or 0.3210 Amazon shares per Globalstar share, with Amazon-share value capped at $90.00 and aggregate cash elections limited to 40%. The transaction has already received written approval from holders of approximately 58% of Globalstar's voting power, and the U.S. HSR waiting period expired in July 2026. Closing remains expected in 2027 and depends on outstanding regulatory approvals and HIBLEO-4 milestones. The successful August deployment of eight replacement satellites materially reduces one element of execution risk, but it does not eliminate regulatory, remaining milestone, consideration-adjustment, Amazon-share-price, or termination risk. A Hold recommendation reflects the capped contractual consideration and unresolved closing conditions rather than a standalone operating valuation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$90.00

Mean target$90.00

High · most bullish analyst$90.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$50.0015%

Material regulatory delay, failure to satisfy remaining satellite milestones, customer or contractual disruption, or another termination event prevents completion. Globalstar then trades on standalone operating prospects after having suspended forward guidance and while absorbing transaction and network-development costs.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$90.0060%

Matches the consensus mean

The Amazon acquisition closes during 2027 after the remaining regulatory and satellite conditions are satisfied. The target is set modestly below the $90 contractual cap to reflect timing, the limited cash pool, possible Amazon-share-price variability, and residual execution risk.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$90.0025%

The remaining regulatory approvals arrive without onerous remedies, all HIBLEO-4 milestones are completed, no consideration adjustment applies, and the transaction closes on schedule. Globalstar holders realize the contractual value cap through cash or sufficiently valuable Amazon shares.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

The definitive agreement provides a disclosed consideration framework of $90.00 cash or 0.3210 Amazon shares per Globalstar share, subject to proration and a $90.00 value cap.
Approximately 58% of Globalstar's voting power approved the transaction by written consent, and the HSR waiting period expired on July 17, 2026.
All eight satellites in the initial HIBLEO-4 replacement launch were deployed, reached their intended orbital planes, and came under Globalstar's command and control.

Key Investment Risks

Closing remains subject to outstanding FCC, international, foreign-investment, satellite, and communications approvals, as well as remaining HIBLEO-4 milestones.
Transaction consideration can be adjusted downward by as much as $110 million if specified operational milestones are not achieved.
Cash elections are capped at 40% of Globalstar shares, while stock consideration is exposed to Amazon's share price and capped at $90.00 per Globalstar share.
Globalstar suspended forward guidance and future earnings calls during the transaction, reducing visibility while the deal remains pending.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.