GlobalFoundries Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySemiconductors Beta (adjusted)1.53 Intrinsic Value $55.95median of 6 methods · middle span $49-$121based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $48.68Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 15% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $27.1B Enterprise Value $26.4B Shares Outstanding 555M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date16 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend23 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary GlobalFoundries entered the second half of 2026 with improving operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased to $1.786 billion, Non-IFRS gross margin reached 29.9%, and management guided Q3 revenue to $1.885 billion at the midpoint. Silicon photonics, advanced packaging, quantum manufacturing and physical-AI processor IP broaden the growth opportunity, supported by proposed U.S. government awards. The offset is elevated execution risk: Q2 adjusted free cash flow was negative $3 million as capital spending rose, the announced government awards remain subject to letters of intent, and the long-duration manufacturing expansion program requires sustained utilization and customer demand. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$55.00 Mean target$76.76 High · most bullish analyst$140.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $55.0023% Revenue falls below the Q3 guidance floor, Non-IFRS gross margin drops below 29.5%, government support is delayed or reduced, and the large manufacturing and R&D program produces weak utilization and continued pressure on free cash flow. Base CaseCentral scenario $76.7658% Matches the consensus meanRevenue tracks near the Q3 guidance midpoint and margins improve gradually as silicon photonics, advanced packaging and differentiated technologies scale. Capital investment limits near-term free-cash-flow conversion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $140.0019% Revenue meets or exceeds the top of Q3 guidance, optical-networking demand accelerates, the proposed silicon-photonics and quantum awards become definitive, and richer technology-services and AI-infrastructure mix sustain margin expansion despite investment spending. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |