Global Water Resources Inc Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryWater Utilities Beta (adjusted)0.93 Intrinsic Value $4.71median of 6 methods · middle span $3-$11based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $8.00Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 41% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $230.4M Enterprise Value $360.7M Shares Outstanding 29.9M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date11 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Global Water Resources, Inc. (GWRS) operates as a regulated water, wastewater, and recycled water utility in high-growth corridors of Arizona. The company benefits from strong structural demand, organic connection growth, and a strategic consolidation/regionalization strategy. However, near-term profitability is heavily pressured by rising operational expenses, inflationary headwinds, and elevated depreciation charges from capital-intensive infrastructure investments (such as smart meter rollouts). While long-term growth prospects remain supported by Arizona's booming economy and the Ag-to-Urban water rights conversion program, the stock is expected to remain under pressure until clear signs of margin improvement and favorable rate case outcomes materialize. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$7.10 Mean target$9.80 High · most bullish analyst$12.50 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case assumes prolonged regulatory delays or unfavorable decisions on pending rate cases, continued high inflation in power and chemical costs, and a slowdown in Arizona's housing market. Elevated capital expenditures would continue to burn cash, leading to further net losses and potential pressure on the monthly dividend. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes steady organic connection growth of 4-6% annually, supported by ongoing residential and commercial development in the Phoenix and Maricopa MSAs. Regulatory rate cases are expected to be partially approved, helping to offset rising operational costs over time. Near-term margins will remain compressed due to high depreciation and O&M expenses, but EBITDA generation will remain stable. Bull CaseUpside scenario Rapid organic customer connection growth driven by population expansion and industrial boom in Arizona, combined with a programmatic utility consolidation strategy and rate case recoveries. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |