Global Payments Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Global Payments Inc

GPNNYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Beta (adjusted)0.84

Intrinsic Value $138.90median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $80.29Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 73% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+73%)

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Market Cap $21.2B

Enterprise Value $38.4B

Shares Outstanding 268.2M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend11 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Global Payments has become a substantially larger pure-play commerce-solutions provider following the January 2026 Worldpay acquisition and Issuer Solutions divestiture. The combination adds global enterprise, ecommerce, embedded-payments and SMB distribution at significant scale, while management targets sizable integration and transformation benefits. Second-quarter execution was broadly consistent with expectations, including 4% normalized adjusted net revenue growth, a 42.0% adjusted operating margin and 12% adjusted EPS growth. However, management reduced its 2026 revenue-growth and adjusted-EPS ranges because of pressure in the travel portfolio associated with the Middle East conflict. The investment case therefore depends on sustaining organic growth while delivering Worldpay synergies, margin expansion and deleveraging without disrupting clients.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets28 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$60.00

Mean target$101.50

High · most bullish analyst$194.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$60.0020%

Worldpay integration disrupts client retention or costs more than planned, revenue growth falls below the revised outlook, and geopolitical weakness in travel persists. Failure to capture targeted synergies or reduce adjusted net leverage to 3.0x within the stated period would constrain capital allocation and weaken the expected acquisition return.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$101.5056%

Matches the consensus mean

Full-year normalized constant-currency adjusted net revenue growth remains within the 4%-5% range, adjusted operating margin expands by approximately 150 basis points, and adjusted EPS lands within $13.60-$13.80. Worldpay integration and the capital-return program remain on track, but travel-related geopolitical pressure and execution complexity limit near-term upside.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$194.0024%

Integration proceeds ahead of schedule, Genius adoption and cross-selling accelerate, and diversified enterprise, platform and SMB distribution lifts normalized growth above the current 4%-5% outlook. Realization of the targeted Worldpay expense and revenue synergies, together with transformation benefits, supports durable margin expansion, double-digit adjusted EPS growth, deleveraging and continued capital returns.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

The completed Worldpay transaction created a pure-play commerce-solutions provider serving more than 6 million merchant locations, processing approximately $3.7 trillion of payment volume and about 94 billion transactions annually across more than 175 countries.
Second-quarter 2026 results showed 4% normalized adjusted net revenue growth, a 42.0% normalized adjusted operating margin, 12% adjusted EPS growth and $1.2 billion of year-to-date capital returns.
Management targets $600 million of annual run-rate Worldpay expense synergies by year-end 2028, at least $200 million of revenue synergies, and more than $650 million of annual run-rate transformation benefits by the first half of 2027.

Key Investment Risks

The Worldpay combination entails material integration, client-retention, technology, cybersecurity, fraud-control and personnel-execution risks.
Management reduced its 2026 normalized constant-currency adjusted net revenue growth outlook to 4%-5% and adjusted EPS outlook to $13.60-$13.80 because the Middle East conflict affected the travel portfolio.
The transaction increased acquisition-related borrowings and interest expense, making timely deleveraging to the stated 3.0x adjusted net leverage target important to capital-allocation flexibility.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.