Gladstone Capital Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryAsset Management & Custody Banks Beta (adjusted)0.95 Intrinsic Value $16.98median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $19.41Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $438.5M Enterprise Value $682.9M Shares Outstanding 22.6M diluted Next Earnings Date20 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend18 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Gladstone Capital (GLAD) is a business development company (BDC) focused on lower middle-market debt and equity investments. While the stock offers an attractive monthly dividend yield of approximately 9.5%, it faces headwinds from yield compression due to a lower interest rate environment. The company has successfully managed its leverage profile and executed key portfolio exits (such as the ARA investment), but tight dividend coverage and a lack of near-term positive catalysts support a conservative Hold rating. The stock currently trades at a discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV), reflecting these industry-wide and company-specific challenges. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$22.00 Mean target$22.00 High · most bullish analyst$22.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $18.0020% Further interest rate cuts or credit deterioration in the lower middle-market portfolio leads to rising default rates and NAV write-downs. NII falls below the $0.45 quarterly distribution requirement, forcing a dividend cut and causing the stock's discount to NAV to widen significantly. Base CaseCentral scenario $21.0050% Gladstone Capital maintains stable Net Investment Income (NII) that closely covers its $0.15 monthly distribution. Portfolio yields remain compressed around 11.8% to 12.2% due to the flat interest rate environment, and the stock continues to trade at a modest discount to NAV. Moderate loan book growth offsets yield compression. Bull CaseUpside scenario $22.0030% Accelerated origination activity in the lower middle market and successful equity exits generate substantial capital gains, allowing for supplemental distributions and driving NAV appreciation. A stabilizing interest rate environment protects portfolio yields, while conservative leverage allows the company to expand its loan book profitably. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |