Gilead Sciences, Inc. Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)0.54 Intrinsic Value $82.71median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $147.50Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 44% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $182.9B Enterprise Value $206B Shares Outstanding 1.2B diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Gilead's operating momentum is favorable: second-quarter 2026 product sales excluding Veklury grew 10%, HIV sales grew 12%, Trodelvy grew 26%, and management raised the lower end of its full-year base-business guidance. Yeztugo, Livdelzi, Trodelvy label expansion and the broader lenacapavir pipeline offer additional growth options. The offset is a demanding valuation after the shares reached $145.26 intraday on August 28, substantial acquisition spending that reduced cash and marketable debt securities to $3.2 billion, continued Cell Therapy contraction, and meaningful oncology execution risk highlighted by the EVOKE-03 discontinuation and an IPR&D impairment. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$123.00 Mean target$157.41 High · most bullish analyst$180.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $110.0020% The bear case assumes base-business growth decelerates below the Q2 pace, Cell Therapy erosion deepens, newer launches underperform, or clinical and regulatory setbacks reduce the expected return from the Arcellx, Tubulis and Ouro transactions. Lower liquidity and acquisition-related execution risk would then amplify valuation compression. Base CaseCentral scenario $157.4156% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes product sales excluding Veklury remain within the updated $29.8-$30.1 billion 2026 range, HIV and Trodelvy continue growing but moderate from Q2 rates, Yeztugo expands, and Cell Therapy remains pressured. Acquisition-funded pipeline optionality partly offsets integration, liquidity and clinical-development risk. Bull CaseUpside scenario $180.0024% The bull case assumes sustained double-digit base-business growth, continued rapid Yeztugo adoption, durable HIV franchise strength, successful commercialization of expanded Trodelvy indications, improving Livdelzi contribution and favorable execution on anito-cel and other acquired pipeline assets. Those outcomes would justify a premium to the August 28 market price. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |