Gildan Activewear Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Gildan Activewear Inc

GILNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryApparel Manufacturing

Beta (adjusted)1.06

Intrinsic Value $58.46median of 6 methods · middle span $37-$210based on filings through 28 Dec 2025

Market Price $41.92Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 39% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $7.8B

Enterprise Value $11.3B

Shares Outstanding 185.2M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend20 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Gildan's second-quarter profitability, cash generation and HanesBrands synergy execution were strong, but the investment remains balanced by weak pro forma sales momentum, elevated acquisition-related leverage and a material non-recurring tariff-refund benefit in 2026 guidance.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$67.00

Mean target$85.25

High · most bullish analyst$111.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$67.0025%

The bear case assumes pro forma sales weakness persists beyond temporary inventory reductions, synergy realization is delayed, adjusted profitability falls below updated guidance and net leverage remains above 3.2x. The combination would reduce financial flexibility and expose shareholders to greater integration and refinancing risk.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$85.2556%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes revenue finishes near the low end of the $6.0-$6.2 billion 2026 range, adjusted operating margin is approximately 21.8%, adjusted EPS is within the $4.65-$4.75 range and approximately $100 million of 2026 synergies is realized. Deleveraging progresses, but weak pro forma demand and integration execution limit upside.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$111.0019%

The bull case assumes Gildan sustains adjusted margins above its 2026 outlook, realizes at least the targeted $250 million of annual run-rate HanesBrands cost synergies within three years, converts earnings into strong free cash flow and uses cash plus HanesBrands Australia proceeds to move leverage toward the upper end of its 1.5x-2.5x target range.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter adjusted operating margin reached 22.3%, adjusted diluted EPS was $1.28 and free cash flow was $326 million, demonstrating strong underlying profitability and cash conversion.
Most 2026 synergy-capture initiatives were already implemented by the second quarter; management remained on pace for approximately $100 million of 2026 synergies and approximately $250 million of annual run-rate savings within three years.

Key Investment Risks

Pro forma sales declined as proactive customer-inventory reductions, softer demand and the non-recurrence of prior-year pre-buying offset reported acquisition-driven growth.
Quarter-end net debt was approximately $4.69 billion and net leverage was 3.2x, leaving the investment case dependent on free-cash-flow execution and successful deleveraging.
Expected 2026 IEEPA tariff refunds of approximately $220 million include a significant non-recurring benefit, reducing the quality of earnings and cash-flow comparisons with subsequent periods.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.