Gilat Satellite Networks Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryCommunication Equipment Beta (adjusted)1.05 Intrinsic Value $5.71median of 6 methods · middle span $3-$6based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $9.84Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 42% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $758M Enterprise Value $648.3M Shares Outstanding 77M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend8 Jan 2021 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Gilat Satellite Networks (GILT) is transitioning from a deep-value play into a high-growth execution story. The company has demonstrated strong momentum across commercial, defense, and Peru segments, highlighted by a 20% YoY revenue increase in Q1 2026 and a doubling of Adjusted EBITDA. The strategic acquisition of Comtech's Satellite & Space Communications segment for $158 million cash is a major catalyst that will expand Gilat's defense exposure from 25% to 38% of total revenue, creating a combined entity with over $700 million in annual revenue. Backed by a robust net cash balance sheet and strong tailwinds in in-flight connectivity (IFC) and multi-orbit satellite ground equipment, Gilat is well-positioned to deliver on its upgraded growth trajectory. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$18.40 Mean target$19.20 High · most bullish analyst$20.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $18.4020% Integration of Comtech's segment faces regulatory delays or higher-than-expected costs, while working capital pressures and margin dilution from Stellar Blu persist. Geopolitical tensions in Israel disrupt local operations or supply chains, causing a contraction in valuation multiples and downward revisions to earnings estimates. Base CaseCentral scenario $19.2050% Matches the consensus meanGilat successfully delivers on its reiterated FY 2026 guidance of $500M–$520M in revenue and $61M–$66M in Adjusted EBITDA. The Comtech acquisition closes smoothly by late 2026, and steady execution in the Peru and commercial segments supports a reasonable valuation premium relative to slower-growing peers. Bull CaseUpside scenario $20.0030% Rapid integration of the Comtech acquisition accelerates defense segment growth beyond expectations, while the Boeing partnership for the Sidewinder electronically steered antenna (ESA) drives massive commercial IFC wins. Stellar Blu margins recover faster than anticipated, leading to significant gross margin expansion and driving the stock toward the upper end of its fair value range. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |