GFL Environmental Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

GFL Environmental Inc

GFLNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryWaste Management

Beta (adjusted)0.79

Intrinsic Value $166.11median of 6 methods · middle span $27-$409based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $40.43Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 311% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+311%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $14.6B

Enterprise Value $22.4B

Shares Outstanding 369.6M diluted

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend13 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

GFL entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased to C$1,947.8 million, organic revenue growth reached 6.4%, and management raised full-year guidance for a second time. The investment case nevertheless carries material event and balance-sheet uncertainty. Net leverage was 4.0x at June 30, the SECURE acquisition remained in regulatory review, and a special committee was considering unsolicited preliminary expressions of interest regarding a potential take-private transaction.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$41.13

Mean target$51.59

High · most bullish analyst$65.89

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$41.1320%

Revenue falls below the low end of guidance, net leverage remains above the second-quarter 4.0x level, or the SECURE transaction is delayed or fails to deliver its projected accretion. Diesel, commodity, integration or macroeconomic pressures could also prevent underlying margin improvement from translating into reported results.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$51.5956%

Matches the consensus mean

GFL broadly delivers its C$7,510-C$7,530 million revenue and approximately 30.5% adjusted EBITDA margin guidance while progressing SECURE through regulatory approval and integration planning. Leverage declines toward management's mid-3x year-end objective, but acquisition execution and strategic-review uncertainty limit conviction.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$65.8924%

GFL meets or exceeds its raised 2026 guidance, restores net leverage to the mid-3x range, and closes SECURE on acceptable terms. The acquired portfolio then delivers management's expected 12%-15% adjusted free-cash-flow-per-share accretion and supports the projected pro forma margin improvement. A value-accretive strategic transaction could provide additional upside.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 revenue grew to C$1,947.8 million, including 6.4% organic growth and 6.1% core pricing, demonstrating continued pricing power and top-line momentum.
Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to C$7,510-C$7,530 million of revenue, approximately C$2,290 million of adjusted EBITDA and approximately C$900 million of adjusted free cash flow.
Management expects the proposed SECURE acquisition to be immediately accretive to adjusted free cash flow per share by 12%-15% and to lift pro forma adjusted EBITDA margin to 31.6%.

Key Investment Risks

Net leverage increased to 4.0x at June 30, 2026, compared with 3.4x at December 31, 2025, leaving execution dependent on cash generation and successful deleveraging.
The SECURE acquisition remained subject to regulatory review and customary closing conditions, creating timing, integration and synergy-realization risk.
Unsolicited preliminary take-private interest introduces event-driven uncertainty, and GFL stated that there was no assurance the expressions of interest would result in a transaction.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.