Getty Realty Corp Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Retail Beta (adjusted)0.82 Intrinsic Value $26.34median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $27.84Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.7B Enterprise Value $2.8B Shares Outstanding 61.4M diluted Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend24 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Getty Realty Corp. (GTY) represents a highly defensive, specialized net lease REIT that is successfully transitioning its portfolio from traditional retail motor fuel stations to a diversified mix of convenience, automotive service, collision repair, and drive-thru quick-service restaurant (QSR) properties. Supported by a spotless 99.7% occupancy rate, a robust 10.1-year WALT, and a strong balance sheet with no debt maturities until June 2028, GTY is well-positioned to deliver stable, inflation-protected cash flows. The company's recent upward revision of its 2026 AFFO guidance to $2.50–$2.52 per share highlights its operational resilience and active, accretive investment pipeline. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$33.00 Mean target$36.43 High · most bullish analyst$39.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case assumes prolonged macroeconomic weakness or a severe recession that impacts tenant creditworthiness, leading to rent defaults or lease restructurings. Additionally, a rapid acceleration in EV adoption could depress the residual value of fuel-station properties, while sustained high interest rates compress investment spreads and limit external growth opportunities. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes Getty successfully executes its $125 million committed investment pipeline at an average initial cash yield of 8.0%. Portfolio occupancy remains stable above 99%, and contractual rent escalators drive organic growth. Refinancing risks are minimized by the lack of near-term debt maturities, allowing GTY to grow its AFFO per share by 3-4% annually and support its attractive ~5.8% dividend yield. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |