Geopark Limited Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production Beta (adjusted)0.59 Intrinsic Value $5.92median of 4 methods · middle span $6-$6based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $10.41Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 43% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $675.6M Enterprise Value $1.1B Shares Outstanding 64.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date15 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend20 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary GeoPark Ltd is executing a transformational portfolio reset, shifting from a Colombia-concentrated asset base to a diversified regional platform with high-growth shale exposure in Argentina's Vaca Muerta. Despite near-term headwinds from a planned dividend suspension starting in Q3 2026 to fund this capital-intensive expansion, the company's low-cost operational model, robust hedging program, and strategic backing from Grupo Gilinski position it for substantial long-term value creation. The stock trades at an attractive valuation relative to its peer group, offering a compelling entry point as production inflects upward. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$10.00 Mean target$10.73 High · most bullish analyst$12.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $8.5015% Infrastructure bottlenecks or drilling delays in Argentina slow the Vaca Muerta ramp-up, while regulatory hurdles or community blockades in Colombia disrupt core production. A sharp decline in global crude prices combined with hedging losses compresses margins, extending the dividend suspension past 2028. Base CaseCentral scenario $10.7360% Matches the consensus meanGeoPark delivers on its 2026 production guidance of 27,000-30,000 boepd, with Vaca Muerta reaching its target plateau of 5,000-6,000 boepd by December. Capital expenditures remain within the guided $190-$220 million range, and operating costs stabilize around $13-$14/boe. The dividend suspension is successfully navigated as the market rerates the stock based on its expanded 2P reserve life. Bull CaseUpside scenario $12.0025% Vaca Muerta assets ramp up ahead of schedule, exceeding 6,000 boepd by year-end 2026. Stronger-than-expected Brent pricing combined with successful polymer expansion in Llanos 34 drives operating netbacks higher, allowing the company to resume dividends earlier than projected while maintaining net leverage below 1.0x EBITDA. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |