Genworth Financial Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryInsurance - Life Beta (adjusted)0.91 Intrinsic Value $4.34median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $9.31Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 53% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-53%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.5B Enterprise Value $3B Shares Outstanding 383.8M diluted Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend8 Oct 2008 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Genworth Financial is executing a multi-pillar turnaround strategy centered on unlocking value from its ~81% ownership stake in Enact Holdings (valued at ~$4.7B), scaling its high-growth CareScout aging care platform, and stabilizing its legacy Closed Block long-term care (LTC) insurance liabilities. While the legacy block remains a drag on GAAP earnings, aggressive share buybacks (reducing outstanding shares by ~25% since May 2022) and a potential $750 million legal windfall from the AXA/Santander litigation provide significant near-term catalysts and downside protection. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$12.00 Mean target$12.00 High · most bullish analyst$12.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $12.00 A severe housing market downturn pressures Enact's mortgage insurance margins, reducing capital returns to Genworth. Closed Block statutory losses accelerate, requiring capital injections from the holding company and halting the share buyback program. The AXA litigation appeal is delayed or overturned, removing the anticipated $750 million catalyst. Base CaseCentral scenario $12.00 Matches the consensus meanEnact delivers steady capital returns of ~$405 million in 2026, supporting $195 million to $225 million in share repurchases. CareScout continues its steady expansion, and the Closed Block remains self-sustaining through ongoing MYRAP premium increases and benefit reductions, offsetting sequential mortality volatility. Bull CaseUpside scenario $12.00 Enact continues to generate robust capital returns, exceeding the $405 million annual target. CareScout successfully scales to meet its 7,500 match target and $25 million revenue goal, proving the viability of the new asset-light aging services model. The UK Court of Appeals upholds the AXA/Santander judgment, delivering a $750 million cash windfall that is aggressively deployed into share repurchases, driving substantial EPS accretion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |