Genuine Parts Co Dossier - Source-backed chat

Genuine Parts Co

GPCNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryAuto Parts

Beta (adjusted)0.75

Intrinsic Value $124.58median of 5 methods · middle span $6-$134based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $125.12Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 0% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $17.2B

Enterprise Value $20.9B

Shares Outstanding 138.1M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Genuine Parts entered the second half of 2026 with positive sales momentum, including 6.0% second-quarter sales growth and 3.4% comparable-sales growth, while reaffirming adjusted EPS and cash-flow guidance. Industrial performance was particularly strong, but GAAP earnings declined and restructuring and separation expenses increased. The planned first-quarter 2027 separation could improve strategic focus and capital allocation, but execution, timing and standalone-company economics remain material uncertainties.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$122.00

Mean target$140.38

High · most bullish analyst$170.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$122.0023%

North America Automotive growth falls below the updated outlook, separation or restructuring costs remain elevated, and the transaction is delayed or fails to produce the anticipated strategic benefits. Earnings and cash flow could then fall below management's guidance ranges.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$140.3856%

Matches the consensus mean

Sales remain positive and full-year results finish within management's adjusted EPS and cash-flow ranges, while separation work continues toward first-quarter 2027 completion. Benefits from greater focus are partly offset by restructuring costs, execution complexity and modest North America Automotive growth.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$170.0021%

The separation proceeds on schedule, stronger Industrial demand persists, Automotive initiatives improve execution, and 2026 results reach the upper ends of adjusted EPS and free-cash-flow guidance. Greater strategic clarity and business-specific capital allocation could improve investor recognition of the two platforms.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 sales increased 6.0%, including 3.4% comparable-sales growth, and every reported operating segment generated sales growth.
Industrial comparable sales increased 6.1%, while Industrial EBITDA rose 9.8% and its EBITDA margin expanded 30 basis points to 13.1%.
The company has increased its annual dividend for 70 consecutive years and declared a $1.0625 quarterly dividend in August 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter GAAP diluted EPS declined to $1.65 from $1.83, while first-half restructuring and separation costs totaled $167.878 million before tax effects.
The planned separation remains subject to customary conditions, final board approval and effectiveness of a Form 10 registration statement.
Management reduced the 2026 North America Automotive sales-growth outlook to 2.5%-4.5%, although consolidated adjusted EPS guidance was reaffirmed.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.