Gentherm Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAuto Parts Beta (adjusted)1.24 Intrinsic Value $46.56median of 6 methods · middle span $34-$58based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $33.63Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 38% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1B Enterprise Value $1.1B Shares Outstanding 31.1M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Gentherm is undergoing a transformational combination with Modine's Performance Technologies business via a Reverse Morris Trust (RMT) transaction valued at $1.0 billion. This deal, expected to close in Q4 2026, will nearly double the company's revenue scale to $2.6 billion pro forma and diversify its end-market exposure beyond cyclical light vehicles into commercial, heavy-duty, and power generation markets. Despite near-term margin pressures from footprint realignment and integration costs, Gentherm's strong market share in automotive thermal management, robust new business awards ($395 million in Q1 2026), and expansion into adjacent markets like home and office furniture (KUKA Home partnership) present a compelling long-term growth profile. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$34.00 Mean target$47.71 High · most bullish analyst$59.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Integration challenges or delays in closing the Modine transaction pressure the stock. Persistent material and labor cost inflation, combined with prolonged footprint realignment expenses, continue to compress gross margins. A sharper-than-expected downturn in global light vehicle production further limits near-term earnings visibility. Base CaseCentral scenario The combination with Modine Performance Technologies closes successfully in Q4 2026, realizing $25 million in annual cost synergies by 2028. Automotive thermal management demand remains resilient, and China domestic OEM launches continue to drive outperformance over the broader light vehicle production market. Restructuring costs subside by late 2026, allowing EBITDA margins to expand toward the pro forma target of 13%. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |