Genius Sports Limited Dossier - Source-backed chat

Genius Sports Limited

GENINYSE

SectorCommunication Services

IndustryInternet Content & Information

Beta (adjusted)1.59

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $5.68Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $1.5B

Enterprise Value $1.2B

Shares Outstanding 254.8M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date11 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) is transitioning from a high-growth sports data provider into a highly profitable, durable cash flow compounder. The investment thesis is anchored by its secure, long-term exclusive data rights (e.g., NFL, English Premier League) and the transformative acquisition of Legend, which closed in May 2026. Legend expands Genius's platform into fan engagement, gamification, and targeted advertising, lifting the expected 2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin from 23% to 28% and pulling its long-term margin targets forward by two years. Despite a wider GAAP net loss in Q1 2026 due to one-off transaction costs and stock-based compensation, the underlying business model remains highly visible and compounding, supported by a 120%-130% net revenue retention rate. Trading at a steep EV/EBITDA discount to its closest peer, Sportradar, Genius offers an attractive entry point as the market begins to appreciate its post-merger cash generation profile.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets20 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$6.00

Mean target$10.93

High · most bullish analyst$18.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$6.0015%

Integration difficulties with Legend lead to higher-than-expected operating expenses and delayed synergies. Rising data rights costs continue to pressure gross margins, and a slowdown in global sports betting handle or client advertising budgets limits top-line growth. Dilution from the Legend transaction (10.1 million shares issued) and high stock-based compensation weigh on EPS, delaying GAAP profitability beyond 2027.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$10.9360%

Matches the consensus mean

Genius successfully integrates Legend, achieving its raised FY2026 guidance of $990M to $1.01B in revenue and $270M to $280M in Adjusted EBITDA (28% margin). The company generates approximately $100M in total cash flow in 2H2026 (50%-55% conversion of second-half EBITDA) and transitions to sustained positive GAAP net income in 2027. Valuation multiples re-rate closer to peer Sportradar.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$18.0025%

Rapid integration of Legend drives media revenue growth above the projected 118% YoY, while the GeniusIQ platform automates the entire data rights portfolio ahead of schedule. Prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket partnership) scale exponentially, establishing Genius as the dominant infrastructure layer. Operating leverage expands rapidly, pushing Adjusted EBITDA margins past 30% by 2027 and driving GAAP net income positive ahead of consensus.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Exclusive, long-term official data rights with major global leagues (NFL, EPL) creating high barriers to entry.
Transformative Legend acquisition immediately expands Adjusted EBITDA margins from 23% to 28% and diversifies revenue into high-margin ad-tech and gamification.
Strong customer loyalty with Net Revenue Retention consistently in the 120%-130% range.
Significant valuation discount (approx. 43% on forward EV/EBITDA) relative to closest peer Sportradar Group AG.

Key Investment Risks

Escalating competition and costs for exclusive sports data and streaming rights.
Execution and integration risks associated with the $800M cash and stock acquisition of Legend.
Macroeconomic sensitivity of client advertising budgets and consumer discretionary sports betting handle.
Short-term EPS volatility and cash flow seasonality, with Q2 2026 expected to be the low point for cash flow.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Loss of exclusive data rights for either the NFL or English Premier League in upcoming renewal cycles.
Failure to achieve positive GAAP net income by the end of fiscal year 2027.
EBITDA margin expansion tracking significantly below the guided 28% post-Legend consolidation.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.