Genius Group Ltd Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryDiversified Consumer Services Beta (adjusted)6.49 Intrinsic Value No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference. Market Price $0.15Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $28.6M Enterprise Value $36.2M Shares Outstanding 191.9M diluted Next Earnings Date31 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Genius Group is transitioning from a pure-play EdTech provider into a diversified digital asset and AI-powered holding company. By combining its high-growth operating business (Genius School, Genius Academy, Genius Resorts) with a dual-pillar treasury strategy (Bitcoin and the newly launched AGI Infinity Portfolio), the company offers a unique vehicle for public market investors to gain exposure to pre-IPO frontier AI companies (such as SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI) and regulated digital banking via its 9.9% stake in Jewel Bank. While execution risks and going concern warnings remain, the rapid top-line expansion (171% YoY revenue growth in Q1 2026) and operational turn-around support a highly speculative buy case. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$3.25 Mean target$3.25 High · most bullish analyst$3.25 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $0.2315% The company fails to resolve its going concern uncertainty, leading to severe dilution from continuous equity offerings. Regulatory hurdles delay or block Jewel Bank's stablecoin initiatives, and the AGI Infinity Portfolio suffers from poor market timing or illiquidity in private markets. Core EdTech growth slows down amid intense competition. Base CaseCentral scenario $3.2560% Matches the consensus meanThe company achieves its 2026 revenue guidance of $20 million to $22 million and positive Adjusted EBITDA of $1.5 million to $2.0 million. The AGI Infinity Portfolio gradually deploys its Phase 1 capital ($20 million) into pre-IPO funds, and the core education platform maintains steady user growth. The going concern warning is resolved through disciplined cash management and successful capital raises. Bull CaseUpside scenario $3.5725% The company successfully executes its five-year roadmap, scaling total assets to $2 billion by 2030. Jewel Bank successfully launches the JUSD stablecoin in H2 2026, capturing a significant share of the projected $2T-$4T stablecoin market. Pre-IPO investments in OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX yield massive returns upon public listings, while the core EdTech business continues to grow at >100% YoY, achieving sustained operational profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |